Kyiv has hit at least 10 refineries in recent months, cutting output by an estimated 10 percent and forcing temporary shutdowns.
The disruption has driven fuel prices higher and left some gas stations dry—an almost unthinkable scenario in a resource-rich country—prompting the Kremlin to step in.
Since late July, Russia has banned fuel exports and moved to stabilize the market, but prices continue to rise.
Ukraine’s drones are not targeting refineries alone. A key focus has been the Unetcha distribution hub in Russia’s Bryansk region near the Ukrainian border. The site is critical: it splits flows along the Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline northward to Belarus and southward through Ukraine toward Slovakia and Hungary.
Three strikes in August temporarily halted pipeline operations, disrupting deliveries.
Minsk has kept quiet, but Bratislava and Budapest have seized on the attacks to criticize Kyiv, filing complaints with Brussels. Both also rattled sabers, hinting at cutting electricity or diesel exports to Ukraine—though these supplies are too profitable to make such threats credible.
Kyiv’s strategy in striking Druzhba serves two purposes. The first is to inflict maximum damage on Russia’s energy sector: shrinking budget revenues, undermining Moscow’s reliability as a supplier, and destabilizing its domestic market in the hope of fueling public discontent with the war.
The second aim is more political. The drone unit’s commander goes by the codename "Magyar"—Hungarian—an ironic twist, since the campaign also seeks to pressure Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to soften his staunchly anti-Ukrainian stance.
Since the start of the invasion, Orban has repeatedly blocked EU initiatives to support Kyiv. While workarounds have been found for some measures, Hungary has flatly refused to approve the opening of Ukraine’s first EU accession negotiation chapter, a step all other member states and the European Commission support.
Kyiv has tried conciliation, even rolling back education reforms to protect the Hungarian minority’s privileges, but with no success.
Now it is wielding a stick instead of a carrot. Beyond drones, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has sought US backing, raising Orban’s obstruction in talks with Donald Trump, which prompted the American president to call the Hungarian leader directly.
Timing is crucial. The risk of Ukraine being left in the EU’s "waiting room" is growing as Moldova heads into parliamentary elections.
The two countries have so far advanced together, but Brussels may soon consider opening talks with Moldova alone to boost the pro-Western government of Maia Sandu—a scenario Hungary quietly encourages by vetoing progress for Ukraine.
Still, the chances of breaking Hungary’s resistance look slim. Orban has spent years stoking fears about the supposed dangers of Ukraine’s EU integration, and with Hungary’s own parliamentary elections due next April, anti-Ukrainian rhetoric has become a central campaign theme.
His Fidesz party has gone too far down that path to turn back now—and Orban shows no inclination to try.
Tadeusz Iwański
Tadeusz Iwański
The author is head of the Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova department at the Warsaw-based Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW). From 2006 to 2011, he worked at Polskie Radio dla Zagranicy, the Polish public broadcaster's international service.